Governor Kihika's absence and the fodder it gives to 2027 rivals

As Kenya edges closer to the 2027 general elections, Nakuru County is emerging as a key battleground, shaped by shifting political alliances and a crowded field of aspirants vying for the gubernatorial seat.

The recent pact between UDA and the ODM, coupled with an unexpected alliance between former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, is redefining the county’s political landscape.

Local politicians are wasting no time, aligning themselves with these factions as they strategize for various elective positions, with the governorship drawing the most attention.

Governor Susan Kihika, the county’s first female chief executive, faces a formidable challenge as she prepares to defend her seat. A host of prominent figures, ranging from current lawmakers and former government officials to ex-politicians, have either declared their candidacy or signaled their intent to unseat her.

Among the notable contenders are Nakuru Senator Tabitha Karanja, former National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) Chief Executive Officer Geoffrey Mwangi, former Nakuru County Assembly Speaker Joel Kairu, and James Mungai, the county’s inaugural senator. Adding intrigue to the race, former Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui, now serving as Trade Cabinet Secretary, is reportedly contemplating a return to the county’s top job.

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Kinyanjui, a soft-spoken technocrat who governed Nakuru from 2017 to 2022, had hinted at a comeback prior to his appointment to President William Ruto’s Cabinet. Sources close to him reveal that he held several consultative meetings with key allies in the county to map out his political return.

Since taking up his national role, however, Kinyanjui has largely avoided local political forums and refrained from commenting on county affairs via social media. His allies insist that his ambitions remain intact, suggesting he is biding his time, focusing on his current duties while awaiting the opportune moment to relaunch his bid for the governorship.

For incumbent Governor Kihika, the road to a second term is fraught with obstacles. Her administration has been plagued by controversies, ranging from her abrasive leadership style to questions about her performance and her close alignment with a national government whose popularity has waned in recent months.

Kihika’s absence from office, having been on maternity leave for the past five months, has only amplified these challenges. Her prolonged absence has sparked discontent among residents, culminating in a petition filed last week by activists and governance advocates.

Signed by over 2,000 residents, the petition, presented to the County Assembly on March 20, demands accountability for her absence and transparency in the county’s operations. The assembly has 14 days to respond.

Kihika’s team has pushed back against the criticism.

Joseph Rutto, a political adviser and former deputy governor, defends her record, pointing to achievements such as the newly equipped Subukia Level 4 Hospital, the Bondeni Textile Hub, investments in vocational training colleges, and water projects delivering clean drinking water to residents.

“The governor has outperformed all her predecessors since devolution began in 2013. When the political season arrives, she will be out there defending her development record,” Rutto said.

County Secretary Samuel Mwaura echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that Deputy Governor David Kones is steering the county in consultation with Kihika, who is expected to resume her duties soon.

Despite these assurances, Kihika’s rivals are seizing the moment.

Senator Tabitha Karanja, who publicly clashed with Kihika shortly after the governor took office, has been vocal about her candidacy.

“As a senator, my focus is on oversight and ensuring Nakuru gets its fair share of national resources. The governor must serve the people, not chase headlines,” Karanja says.

Her fallout with Kihika has fueled a bitter rivalry, positioning her as one of the incumbent’s fiercest critics. Karanja has accused Kihika of mismanaging county finances, illegally hiring staff, and terminating contracts of health workers and other employees inherited from the previous administration.

The governor’s troubles extend beyond Karanja’s attacks.

Reports from the Auditor General and Controller of Budget have highlighted irregular spending, unauthorized bank accounts, and expenditures outside the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) under Kihika’s watch.

Members of the County Assembly have also turned against her, accusing her of failing to provide leadership or implement budgeted projects. Perhaps most damaging was the 2023 incident at Nakuru War Memorial Hospital, a private facility, which was stormed by goons allegedly hired by the county executive. The governor claimed the hospital’s lease had expired, despite its renewal by the Lands Ministry, a move she branded fraudulent. The ejection of patients from wards sparked outrage, prompting Karanja to file a Senate petition that led to Kihika’s summons before the upper House.

Kihika’s strained relations with the Kalenjin community, a key voting bloc in Nakuru, further complicate her re-election bid. Having won on the UDA ticket with overwhelming support from Kalenjins in Kuresoi North, Kuresoi South, and Rongai constituencies, she faced backlash for allegedly sidelining the community in county appointments. Though she later reconciled with some Kalenjin MPs, grassroots discontent persists, with many accusing her of betraying their trust.

Meanwhile, her challengers are hitting the campaign trail early.

Mwangi, the former NHIF boss, is pitching himself as a technocrat with a track record of transformation.

“My expertise in finance and accountancy will bring professionalism and transparency to Nakuru,” he says.

Mwangi, who expanded NHIF’s revenue base before exiting amid graft allegations (later dropped), appears to align with Gachagua’s political faction, recently leading a delegation to the former Deputy President’s Wamunyoro home.

Kairu, the ex-County Assembly Speaker, leverages his experience in both the executive and legislative arms of the county government.

“I have been part of the teams that laid Nakuru’s foundation,” he says, signaling his intent to run in 2027.